Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'Palo Alto Real Estate' Category

Palo Alto Real Estate Update 4/5/09

Here is this week’s update:

16 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

12 new pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

140 current active listings in Palo Alto.

30 current pending sales in Palo Alto.

21.4% pending ratio.

Palo Alto Real Estate Update 3/29/09

Palo Alto real estate updated 3/22/09

Palo Alto update 3/15/09

Palo Alto update 3/6/09

Palo Alto update 2/27/09

For real-time Palo Alto real estate market updates, click here.

Palo Alto Real Estate Update 3/29/09

Here is this week’s update:

12 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

9 new pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

135 current active listings in Palo Alto.

28 current pending sales in Palo Alto.

20.7% pending ratio.

Palo Alto real estate updated 3/22/09

Palo Alto update 3/15/09

Palo Alto update 3/6/09

Palo Alto update 2/27/09

For real-time Palo Alto real estate market updates, click here.

Move up buyers stay home while 1st time buyers enter market

Teresa Boardman of St Paul Real Estate – ps she is a great photographer – recently wrote a post about “move-up” buyers in her market want to buy but since they existing home is underwater they can not sell their existing home. Hence they are unable to buy.
Many of her comments about the entry level being the strongest portion of the market with the “move-up” market being very slow or non-existent applies to the market on the San Francisco Peninsula.
Many first-time buyers are getting into the market – taking advantage of lower prices, very low rates and tax credits. Most sales are at the low end of the price spectrum with foreclosure REOs being a large percentage of all current sales. Hence median and average prices continue to go down.
The “move-up” buyer is sitting on the fence. Unlike your area, it is NOT because these potential “move-up” buyers are “under water” but rather they do not have confidence in the economy or the market to make a move-up in a market where moving up means selling for $1.5M and buying for $2M. These folks are just not interested in taking on $500K in additional debt when things look very uncertain. In addition since the price of their home has dropped, they may no longer have enough equity in their current home to put the 20% to 25% down needed to buy and finance their new home with a jumbo mortgage. So they are not “underwater” but lack the down payment to buy the larger house. I believe the “fear” factor is the bigger issue but lack of equity to make the downpayment on their purchase also contributes to the lack of activity in the move-up market.
Arn

Palo Alto Real Estate Update 3/22/09

Here is this week’s update:

22 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

5 new pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

137 current active listings in Palo Alto.

25 current pending sales in Palo Alto.

18% pending ratio.

Palo Alto update 3/15/09

Palo Alto update 3/6/09

Palo Alto update 2/27/09

For real-time Palo Alto real estate market updates, click here.

Where are all the foreclosure properties?????

Many buyers are looking for foreclosures – in hopes – of buying a good deal.

While buying a foreclosure propertry (ie REO) may often be a good deal, you will not find many in the prime residential communities of the San Francisco Peninsula where the average home prices are well over One Million Dollars. One can find foreclosures in areas that were financed with sup-prime mortgages – these are typically areas where the peak price was $500,000, $600,000 and maybe $700,000.

Dave Blockhus Coldwell Banker Los Altos, for example reports there are only 3 foreclosure properties for sale in Los Altos.

When I get a change, I will run the numbers for Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and San Carlos but I suspect the numbers will be the same.

11 year history Palo Alto closed home sales January February 1999-2009

It is common knowledge that the local real estate market is slow.

The question is: “How slow?”

The chart below shows the total number of closed single family home sales in Palo Alto during the months of January and February from 1999 to 2009. By looking only at the months of January and February, seasonal factors should be eliminated.

The data provides insight into the current market.

The 11 year average for closed home sales in Palo Alto during January and February is about 48.

2009 is about at half that average with 26.

Palo Alto Real Estate update 3/15/09

Here is this week’s update:

14 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

4 new pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

129 current active listings in Palo Alto.

25 current pending sales in Palo Alto.

Palo Alto update 3/6/09

Palo Alto update 2/27/09

Palo Alto Real Estate Updated Friday 3/6/09

Last week’s numbers were:

22 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

2 pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

123 listings currently for sale in Palo Alto.

23 pending sales currently in Palo Alto.

This week’s numbers are:

13 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

12 pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

123 listings currently for sale in Palo Alto.

25 pending sales currently in Palo Alto.

Is it a good time to buy?

That is the $64Million question on many folks’ minds.

Here is my “take”:
In my San Francisco Peninsula market, I would say:
Are there good values to be found? Yes.
Are we at botttom? Probably not. I expect contiuned downward pressure on prices. (In most San Francisco Peninsula cites, values are down maybe 10% to 20% from the peak in 06/07)
Is it a good time to buy? Yes: 1)  if you find a house you  really like  in the community where you want to put down roots 2) you have a long-term perspective – say 10 years and 3) your job situtation is pretty stable and 4) you buy comfortably within your financial means – this is not the time to stretch.

Jay Thompson The Phoenix Real Estate Guy provides a similar perspective on the Phoenix market which has been hit much much harder than our own market.

What say you?

What do my Homescopes blog buddies around Northen California have to say?

Palo Alto Menlo Park Redwood City San Carlos Market Action Index

They say a picture is worth a thousand words.

A Market Action index at 30 indicates a balanced market.

Above 30 is a sellers’ market.

Below 30 is a buyers’ market.

On the San Francisco Peninsula in the cities of San Carlos, Redwood City, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto; we were in a sellers market until about July 1, 2007. Very strong sellers market in 2005 cooling somewhat in 2006 but staying biased towards sellers until about Fall 2007 when the index dropped quickly below 30 into the 20 range and now all 4 cities are between 15 and 20.

From the shape of the graph, we appear to have hit a level point.

Are we near the bottom? Or is this just a temporary pause before we continue down?

I can tell you in the $700K to $900K, homes do seem to be selling.

I have two active qualified buyer clients in this price range – one looking San Mateo Belmont San Carlos and the other looking in Cupertino Sunnyvale – and many homes I want to show them are sold before we get there.

Is market picking up with spring quickly approaching?