Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'Palo Alto Real Estate' Category

2 new downtown Palo Alto condominium listings

There were two new beautiful condominium listings in downtown Palo Alto.

Downtown Palo Alto is a highly sought after location. University Avenue and all its shops, stores, and restaurants are within a few minutes walk from these two listings.

800 High St. $407, Palo Alto is listed by Nicklas Granoski at $1,398,000.

This unit is a top floor condo in a four story building – 4 bedrooms 2 baths all on one level – contaning 1,638 – built in 2006. This building has a San Francisco loft/industrial feel on the outside.

The other new listing is 315 Homer Ave. #203 Palo Alto listed by Elizabeth Daschbach at $1,348,000.

This condominium is located int he desirable Weatherley building built by Summerhill in 2004.

This unit contains 1,510 square feet of living space all on one level with 2 bedrooms and 2 baths.

Just give me a call if you would like to see either of these condominiums or others in the downtown Palo Alto and Menlo Park areas.

Palo Alto CA Median Price v Median Price per square foot

What have median prices and median prices per square foot done in Palo Alto over the past 4 years?

The chart below provides the answer:

Baed on listing data:

The median price home in Palo Alto is currently $1.7M and the median price per square foot is about $860/sf.

In January 2005, the same numbers were $1.75M and $880/sf.

Can this be true? Or does it simply reflect mor elower priced homes on the market currently?

Let’s look at median price over the past four years in the four price quartiles – this will give us some insight into whether all prices ranges in Palo Alto are moving in sync or whether one price range is stronger than another.

Based on this data, it appears that the highest price range in Palo Alto has been the most volatile – starting at $4M in January 2005 and increasing to $5M in January 08 and then dropping to $3.5M in January 09.

The second highest price range is currently at the same level as it was four years ago – $2M.

The two lowest price ranges appear to have increased slightly and in a consistent basis over the past four year ending maybe ending up about 20% from Janaury 2005 to January 2009.

Let’s look at median price per square foot in the four price ranges over the same time period.

Interestingly the shape of the 4 curves is similar throughout the price ranges but what is even more interesting is  that the median price per square foot for the lowest three price ranges is fairly similar over the past four years – therefore the big difference in value is almost totally dependent on square footage since the median price per square foot is similar.

The most expensive homes sell for the highest price per square foot – I imagine this is a result of locational differences – ie – the most expensive homes are located in Palo Alto’s most desirable “northern” neighborhoods – Old Palo Alto, Crescent Park, Professorville, and downtown and that the more expensive homes are average are probably new or newer homes and therefore understandably sell for more per square foot.

What is your “take” on the data?

Palo Alto CA market data – effect of stock market crash 10/08?

2008 was generally a slow year for real estate on the San Francisco Peninsula.

In the desirable residential communities, prices were flat to slightly declining and number of sales was typically down about 25%.

But did things change for the worse after the October collapse of the stock market? The data below seems to indicate yes.

                           Oct – Dec 2008      Previous Quarter        Year over Year

Median Price    $1,350,000          $1,700,000 (-20.6%)   $1,576,700 (-13.8%)

Average Price    $1,473,550          $1,793,510 (-17.8%)      $1,854,710 (-20.6%)

# of sales              65                         99 (-34.3%)                     86 (-27.0%)

Pending Sales       6                         13 (-53.8%)                       14 (-57.1%)

Active                     63                       73 (-13.7%)                       25 (+152.0%)

Sales v List Price   99.9%                102.0% (-2.1%)                106.0% (-5.7%)

Days on Market     32                       28 (+13.0%)                       23 (+36.3%)

Whether compared to the prior quarter in 2008 or the same quarter in 2007, the data for the 4th quarter 2008 is weaker.

Median and average price is down from the prior quarter and from the same quarter the year prior.

The number of sales is down from the prior quarter and from the same quarter the year prior.

It appears and it makes sense that the stock market debacle in October 2008 has impacted our local real estate market. I will look at other cities on the Peninsula and see if the same trend applies.

Palo Alto 2008 Year in Review

Here is a review of the Palo Alto, California residential real estate market in 2008:

Median price decreased to $1,550,000 in 2008 from $1,552,100 in 2007 – a 0.1% decrease.

Average price increased to $1,760,930 in 2008 from $1,870,640 in 2007 – a 5.9% decrease.

The number of sales decreased to 351 from 465 in 2007 – a 24.5% decrease.

Current number of active listings is 63 compared to 25 at the same date in 2007 – an increase of 152.0%.

The sales per list price ratio dropped to 101.8% in 2008 from 106.4% in 2007 – a decrease of 4.3%.

Days on market increased to 26 days in 2008 from 24 days in 2007 – an increase of 9.3%.

Days of inventory increased to 72 days in 2008 from about 31 in 2007.

Much of this data is shown in the charts below.

                                       Prices and Sales

                                       Days of Inventory

Market Data, for most cities on the San Francisco Peninsula, can be obtained by clicking on the market reports link above.

San Carlos Menlo Park Palo Alto inventory levels

76 homes for sale in San Carlos at the present time.

115 homes for sale in Menlo Park at the present time.

92 homes for sale in Palo Alto at the present time.

Inventory in all 3 cities has dropped in the past month as owners take their homes off the market for the holidays or perhaps some owners realize they can not sell their homes for the price they want.

San Carlos Menlo Park Palo Alto % of listings with prices decreases

What percentage of single family homes have had price reductions in San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto?

See chart below tracking this data throughout the year.

At the beginning of 2008, about 47% of the homes listed in San Carlos had price reductions. This percentage dropped to about 35% during the psring buying season and then has steadily increased throughout the year to almost 50% of the home currently listed having undergone price reductions.

The pattern for Menlo Park homes in 2008 is similar – starting the year with 34% of the listings having price reduction decreasing in spring to about 30% and rising for the balance of the year to 43% of homes with price reductions.

The pattern in Palo Alto is different than in San Carlos and Menlo Park. Only 20% of the Palo Alto home listings had price reductions at the beginning of 2008. This percentage has increased steadily through the year to 40% at present.

It appears that the real estate slowdown effecting many other areas has finally started to hit Palo Alto as the year went on.

Palo Alto home sales at their lowest levels in 11 years !

November Palo Alto home sales are at their lowest levels in 11 years.

In November 2008, 23 Palo Alto home sales closed escrow.

Compared to November Palo Alto Home Sales as follows:

2007 - 26 closed Palo Alto home sales

2006 - 41 closed Palo Alto home sales

2005 – 38 closed Palo Alto home sales

2004 – 50 closed Palo Alto home sales

2003 - 51 closed Palo Alto home sales

2002 – 37 closed Palo Alto home sales

2001 - 40 closed Palo Alto home sales

2000 - 44 closed Palo Alto home sales

1999 – 47 closed Palo Alto home sales

1998 - 35 closed Palo Alto home sales

23 closed sales in November 2008 for Palo Alto is about 60% of the 11 year average of approximately 39 Palo Alto home sales in the month of November.

On a comparative basis, the Palo Alto market is currently a little stronger than the markets in San Carlos and Menlo Park. As November 2008 sales in Menlo Park and San Carlos are about 50% of the 11 year average compared to 60% for Palo Alto

Palo Alto Real Estate Days on Market by Price Range

Is any price range of the Palo Alto real estate market selling more quickly or more slowly than other price ranges?

Breaking the City of Palo Alto market down into 4 quartiles or prices ranges as follows:

First quartile – top 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $3,399,000

Second quartile – next 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $2,189,000

Third quartile – the next 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $1,562,450

Forth quartile – the lowest 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $1,135,000

Take a look at the chart below:

In Menlo Park during 2008, the higher price range sold more quickly than the lower price range. In Palo Alto, the lower price range sold more quickly than the upper price range. My sense is buyers are taking advantage of the slower market to get into the Palo Alto market primarily for the excellent schools and storng sense of community.

Just reduced 8 unit apartment in Palo Alto CA $2,495,000

I have just reduced the list price on 530 Kendall Ave. in Palo Alto, CA to $2,495,000.

8 units - four 1 bedrooms and four 2 bedrooms.

Only minutes to Stanford and downtown Palo Alto.

530 Kendall detailed info

San Carlos Menlo Park Palo Alto Market Action Index 2008

Altos Research has developed a method (the Market Action Index) to quickly evaluate how strong or weak a current market is. The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller’s Market” (a.k.a. “Hot Market”) because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a “Buyer’s Market” (a.k.a. “Cold Market”) where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall. Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market MARKET ACTION INDEX conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

The MAI forSan Carlos and Menlo Park has been between 18 and 25 all year – indicating a buyers’ market for 2008.

The MAI for Palo Alto started above 30 – indicating a sellers’ market – but then dropped below 30 on its way to 20 indicating a buyers’ market even in Palo Alto.

Please let me know if you would like weekly or monthly market reports emailed to you.