Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'Real Estate Data' Category

Menlo Park Real Estate 2009 Q1 report

Trends At a Glance	Jan-Mar 2009	Previous Quarter	Year-over Year
Median Price	$915,000	$1,010,000 (-9.4%)	$1,532,500 (-40.3%)
Average Price	$932,096	$1,155,190 (-19.3%)	$1,763,270 (-47.1%)
No. of Sales	50	59 (-15.3%)	56 (-10.7%)
Pending Properties	18	7 (+157.1%)	26 (-30.8%)
Active	130	86 (+51.2%)	97 (+34.0%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.8%	97.9% (-0.2%)	99.9% (-2.2%)
Days on Market	53	42 (+27.2%)	40 (+32.0%)

Property values have not dropped over 40% in the past year as indicated by the change in average and median sale prices in Menlo Park on a year to year basis. Rather this data indicates that most of the sales now occuring in Menlo Park are in the lower entry level price range. The more expensive move-up homes are not selling as often as the more affordable homes. Buyers are taking advantage of lower prices and very low rates to get into Menlo Park especially for the schools.

Move up buyers stay home while 1st time buyers enter market

Teresa Boardman of St Paul Real Estate – ps she is a great photographer – recently wrote a post about “move-up” buyers in her market want to buy but since they existing home is underwater they can not sell their existing home. Hence they are unable to buy.
Many of her comments about the entry level being the strongest portion of the market with the “move-up” market being very slow or non-existent applies to the market on the San Francisco Peninsula.
Many first-time buyers are getting into the market – taking advantage of lower prices, very low rates and tax credits. Most sales are at the low end of the price spectrum with foreclosure REOs being a large percentage of all current sales. Hence median and average prices continue to go down.
The “move-up” buyer is sitting on the fence. Unlike your area, it is NOT because these potential “move-up” buyers are “under water” but rather they do not have confidence in the economy or the market to make a move-up in a market where moving up means selling for $1.5M and buying for $2M. These folks are just not interested in taking on $500K in additional debt when things look very uncertain. In addition since the price of their home has dropped, they may no longer have enough equity in their current home to put the 20% to 25% down needed to buy and finance their new home with a jumbo mortgage. So they are not “underwater” but lack the down payment to buy the larger house. I believe the “fear” factor is the bigger issue but lack of equity to make the downpayment on their purchase also contributes to the lack of activity in the move-up market.
Arn

11 year history Palo Alto closed home sales January February 1999-2009

It is common knowledge that the local real estate market is slow.

The question is: “How slow?”

The chart below shows the total number of closed single family home sales in Palo Alto during the months of January and February from 1999 to 2009. By looking only at the months of January and February, seasonal factors should be eliminated.

The data provides insight into the current market.

The 11 year average for closed home sales in Palo Alto during January and February is about 48.

2009 is about at half that average with 26.

San Carlos Market Update

How is the San Carlos real estate market doing over the past 6 months?
Is one price range range stronger than another?

The first quartile is the highest 25% priced homes in San Carlos.
The second quartile is the upper middle 25% priced homes in San Carlos.
The third quartile is the lower middle 25% priced homes in San Carlos.
The fourth quartile is the lowest 25% priced homes in San Carlos.

As the chart below shows; over the past 6 months prices have remained basically flat though the median price in the first quartile (highest priced homes) has dropped slightly.

Average days on market has increased in San Carlos over the past 6 months.

The most expensive homes have the longest average days on market and the third quartile (homes priced around $1M) have the lowest average days on market.

The third quartile is the entry level price range for homes west of El Camino in San Carlos.

The market action index indicates the relative strenght of the market.

A market action index under 30 indicates a buyers’ market.

As the chart below indicates: in all prices ranges in San Carlos, the current market is a storng buyers’ market.

The lower price ranges (3rd and 4th) quartiles are slightly stronger than the two higher price ranges.

In my opinion, the market for the upper price range homes is slower because there are few “move-up” buyers in the current market – i.e. those that have a house to sell and wish to buy a more expensive house. These potential “move-up” may not want to sell their homes at a price below the peak eventhough the price of the house they buy will also have dropped (in some cases, more) or they may think their house will not sell or they are just too concerned about the economy and the job market and therefore prefer to stay put instead of taking on a larger mortgage to buy a more expensive house.

Mountain View Real Estate Updated Friday 3/6/09

Last week’s numbers were:

7 new listings this week in Mountain View

2 new pending sales this week in Mountain View

83 active listings currently in Mountain View

18 pending sales currently in Mountain View

This week’s numbers are:

12 new listings this week in Mountain View

1 new pending sales this week in Mountain View

88 active listings currently in Mountain View

17 pending sales currently in Mountain View

Menlo Park Real Estate Updated Friday 3/6/09

The numbers’ last week were:

19 new listings this week in Menlo Park

3 new pending sales this week in Menlo Park

101 active listings currently in Menlo Park

32 pending sales currently in Menlo Park

The numbers this week are:

13 new listings this week in Menlo Park

4 new pending sales this week in Menlo Park

111 active listings currently in Menlo Park

25 pending sales currently in Menlo Park

Palo Alto Real Estate Updated Friday 3/6/09

Last week’s numbers were:

22 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

2 pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

123 listings currently for sale in Palo Alto.

23 pending sales currently in Palo Alto.

This week’s numbers are:

13 new listings this week in Palo Alto.

12 pending sales this week in Palo Alto.

123 listings currently for sale in Palo Alto.

25 pending sales currently in Palo Alto.

Redwood City Real Estate Updated Friday 3/6/09

Last week’s numbers were:

12 new listings this week in Redwood City

14 new pending sales this week in Redwood City

151 available listings currently in Redwood City

63 pending sales currently in Redwood City

This week’s numbers are:

24 new listings this week in Redwood City

11 new pending sales this week in Redwood City

161 available listings currently in Redwood City

60 pending sales currently in Redwood City

San Carlos Real Estate Updated Friday 3/6/09

Last week, here were the numbers:

17 new listings this week in San Carlos

6 pending sales this week in San Carlos

59 available listings currently in San Carlos

25 pending sales currently in San Carlos

This week, here are the numbers:

10 new listings this week in San Carlos

2 pending sales this week in San Carlos

63 available listings currently in San Carlos

19 pending sales currently in San Carlos

Regulations and Forms available for $8000 first time home buyer credit

Diane Tuman of Zillow provides all the latest info on this credit.

I have recently represented a young first-time home buyer who got into contract on an REO prior to the passage of the stumulus package but they closed after the package becoming law so they will receive the $8,000 credit. That was an unexpected and very welcome bonus to buying a home.

Take advantage of this credit and the $10,000 CA state credit.

Contact me for more details.