Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'Real Estate Data' Category

Inventory Levels Palo Alto Menlo Park Redwood City San Carlos

All 4 communities saw inventory levels drop at the end of the year.

All 4 communities have seen inventory levels increase through 2009.

Palo Alto has experienced the greatest increase in inventory levels – very interesting!

What is happening in the Menlo Park market?

As Menlo Park contains only 1 zip code, this report will cover all areas within the City of Menlo Park – both west and east of HWY 101 and the unincorporated areas known as North Fair Oaks and the County Area along the Alameda near the world famous Dutch Goose!

Where is the market in Menlo Park headed?

The median list price in Menlo Park increased to $1,295,000.

Average price per square foot in Palo Alto 94303 increased to $695.

Average days on market increased to 104.

47% of the listings in Menlo Park have a price reduction.

The current market action index for Menlo Park is 17 – below 30 is considered a buyers’ market.

Below you will find chart showing market action index by price range over the past 6 months.

The price range is broken down into 4 quartiles:

Highest has median price of $2,350,000

2nd highest has median price of $1,549,000

3rd highest has median price of $995,000

Lowest has a median price range of $359,000

Much as we saw in the Palo Alto 94303 report where the lowest quartile price range was in the City of East Palo Alto, in Menlo Park – the lowest quartile price range is primarily homes in the Belle Haven – the City area east of 101.

The market action index for the most expensive homes in Menlo Park dropped strongly at the end of summer and into fall but then has rebounded. The middle price ranges in Menlo Park generally cooled off slightly over the past 6 months. The lowest price range started very slow in August and then has warmed up since then.

What is happening in the Palo Alto 94301 market zip code?

Palo Alto 94301 generally includes all areas north of Oregon Expressway east of Alma including downtown, Professorville, Old Palo Alto, and Crescent Park. This is Palo Alto’s most expensive zip code as you will see by the median prices below.

Where is the market in this area of Palo Alto headed?

The median list price in Palo Alto 94301 increased to $2,475,500.

Average price per square foot in Palo Alto 94301 decreased to $951.

Average days on market increased to 90.

33% of the listings in Palo Alto 94301 have a price reduction.

The current market action index for Palo Alto 94301 is 20 – below 30 is considered a buyers’ market.

This market action index is a higher higher – indicating a little warmer market – still a buyer’s market but not as strongly so as other Palo Alto areas.

Below you will find chart showing market action index by price range over the past 6 months.

The price range is broken down into 4 quartiles:

Highest has median price of $5,495,000

2nd highest has median price of $2,649,000

3rd highest has median price of $1,922,250

Lowest has a median price range of $1,245,000

Wow ! The market action index took a big plunge right about time the stock market was going south.

But has rebounded strongly since that time. It is almost like the market took a real shot – then caught its breath – and then buyers started realizing what a fabulous place the older and most northern neighborhoods of Palo Alto are.

As an aisde the Facebook building on Hamilton Avenue is for sale at $9.1M.

What does Zillow Q4 2008 report say about the local market?

During my 31 years in the real estate business selling properties up and down the San Francisco Peninsula, I am often asked what is so special about Menlo Park or Palo Alto or Los Altos?

Why are homes more expensive in these areas compared to San Carlos (my home for the past 23 years), Redwood City, Belmont, and Mountain View?

The data below taken from Zillows Q4 2008 reports for the San Francisco MSA and the San Jose MSA may give an answer.

On a quarter Q4 to quarter Q3 comparision:
Menlo Park home values up 1.2%
Palo Alto home values down -0.4%
Los Altos home values down -2.9%
while Mt. View is -7.1%, East Palo Alto is -16.7%, Redwood City is -8.4%, San Carlos is -7.3%, and Belmont is -9.4%.

The year to year data is similar Menlo Park up slightly, Palo Alto and Los Altos down slightly, and the other cities down a fair amount ranging from -4.9% to -37.3%.

As I have told my clients “when times are tough, the more desirable markets hold up better”.

But for those doomsayers out there, please note for EVERY CITY except East Palo Alto, the 5 year and 10 year annualized change are ALL POSITIVE. So even after two fairly tough years, home values in these San Francisco mid peninsula cities has gone up over the past 5 to 10 years.

Average increases over 10 years at about 6% per annum. East Palo Alto had a 10 year annualized increase of 5.3%.

A $500,000 property purchased in any of these cities 10 years ago – on average – would be worth $909,000 today.

Say this property was purchased with 20% down or $100,000 10 years ago, the current equity of $509,000 would represent a 17.67% return on the downpayment. This is a “broadbrush” calculation for illustration purposes.

Of course, if the market should continue down for another year or two, the 5 and 10 year annualized returns would be reduced. But I think this data does show the strenght of our local market in the worst economic conditions most of us have ever seen in our lifetimes.

The media often uses Zillow data to paint a bleak picture of the real estate market.
Using Zillow’s own data, I believe one can make reasonable arguments that our market is doing pretty good all things considered.

If there are any stock market guys out there, I would be interested to see 5 and 10 year annualized stock market returns after the current collapse.

Consider real estate in your retirement accounts. Want to learn more, just let me know.

What is happening in the Palo Alto market 94303 zip code?

Palo Alto 94303 generally includes all areas east of Middlefield south of Embarcadero but does include the area around highly-regarded Duvenek School. The 94303 zip code also includes all of East Palo Alto.

Where is the market in this area of Palo Alto headed?

The median list price in Palo Alto 94303 remains stable at $1,295,000.

Average price per square foot in Palo Alto 94303 decreased to $756.

Average days on market increased to 72.

43% of the listings in Palo Alto 94303 have a price reduction.

The current market action index for Palo Alto 94303 is 18 – below 30 is considered a buyers’ market.

Below you will find chart showing market action index by price range over the past 6 months.

The price range is broken down into 4 quartiles:

Highest has median price of $2,395,000

2nd highest has median price of $1,449,000

3rd highest has median price of $1,198,000

Lowest has a median price range of $280,887

The lowest price range in this report essentially shows data for East Palo Alto with a median price of $280,887. Only two years ago, the median price in East Palo Alto was over $600,000. East Palo Alto has been hit with numerous foreclosures so the current market in East Palo Alto is saturated with bank owned foreclosures.

You will note that the highest price range in Palo Alto 94303 has been and is extremely cold – ie buyers market – with market action index of only around 5 but now has warmed up slightly to around 10 – still weak.
The second highest price range has gotten stronger over the past 3 months and is now around 20 – still a buyer’s market but warmer. The entry level for Palo Alto has gotten colder and colder over the past 6 months and is now at an anemic 10 just like the highest price range.

The East Palo Alto market while being relatively warm with a market action index over 20 has cooled in the past tow months also.

What is happening in the Palo Alto market 94306 zip code?

Palo Alto 94306 includes College Terrace, the California Avenue area, Barron Park, and most of Palo Alto south of Oregon west of Middlefield.

Where is the market in this area of Palo Alto headed?

The median list price in Palo Alto 94306 decreased slightly to $1,449,900.

Average price per square foot in Palo Alto 94306 increased to $759.

Average days on market increased to 73.

56% of the listings in Palo Alto 94306 have a price reduction.

The current market action index for Palo Alto 94306 is 16 – below 30 is considered a buyers’ market.

Below you will find chart showing market action index by price range over the past 6 months.

The price range is broken down into 4 quartiles:

Highest has median price of $2,499,000

2nd highest has median price of $1,750,000

3rd highest has median price of $1,299,000

Lowest has a median price range of $988,000

Until about October 2008, the entry level price ranges in Palo Alto – the 3rd and 4th quartile price ranges were relatively strong – almost a balanced buyer/seller market in the upper 20s. 30 is a balanced market. Since October 1, the market action index in these lower prices ranges have dropped significantly  to a buyer’s market. The highest price ranges have been more stable over the past 6 months.

It appears that perhaps the stock market debacle in early October 2008 has put the brakes on the usually robust Palo Alto market.

What is happening in the San Carlos real estate market?

Where is the San Carlos real estate market headed? The next month or so should be telling.

The median list price in San Carlos increased slightly to $1,195,000.

Average price per square foot in San Carlos dropped to $559.

Average days on market increased to 106.

58% of the listings in San Carlos have a price reduction.

The current market action index for San Carlos is 15 – below 30 is considered a buyers’ market.

Below you will find chart showing market action index by price range over the past 6 months.

The price range is broken down into 4 quartiles:

Highest has median price of $1,574,500

2nd highest has median price of $1,299,000

3rd highest has median price of $1,074,950

Lowest has a median price range of $685,000

It is interesting to note that the strongest area of the market appears to be in the lowest price range of homes found in San Carlos, with the highest price range appearing to be the weakest.

All price ranges are still a strong buyer’s market.

I would interpet the strength of the lower price ranges to indicate buyers are taking this opportunity to buy homes on San Carlos – to get in the door so to speak.

If the lower price ranges continue to firm up, that will bode well for the overall market.

The sellers of these homes, once their home is sold, presumably will buy a move-up house.

Super Bowl Real Estate Market Update

Today, as Niner and Raider fans long for the return of the glory days back in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s – when the Niners and Raiders wre regular particpants in the Super Bowl, let’s give credit where credit is due!

Just think if the Niners did not mess up that last goal-line drive against Phoenix in the final seconds, the Niners and not the Cardinals would be going to the playoffs. That being said, Arizona has played great at the right time.

Props to the Steelers and Cardinals ! OK so their football teams are better than ours. !

What about their real estate markets? Which area has the better real estate market?

Here is a chart showing median prices and average days on market in Pittsburgh and Phoenix:

Over the past year….

Pittsburgh prices have been stable while Phoenix prices have dropped from $275,000 to $175,000.

Pittsburgh and Phoenix Days on Market have steadily climbed throughout the year – Pittsburgh about 160 days and Phoenix about 140 days.

Let’s look at Palo Alto and San Carlos by way of comparision:

Median Palo Alto prices have declined from $2.1M to $1.7M while San Carlos Median prices have increased from $1.05M to $1.15M.

Palo Alto average days on market is about 67 and San Carlos average days on market is about 82.

So while us Peninsula folks bemoan the fate of our football teams, our real estate market is still stronger.

Enjoy the day – Super Bowl is an uniquely American holiday.

My golf buddy Roger and a few other friends are coming over to make yummy home-made pizza and drink some wine and enjoy the game.

Palo Alto CA Median Price v Median Price per square foot

What have median prices and median prices per square foot done in Palo Alto over the past 4 years?

The chart below provides the answer:

Baed on listing data:

The median price home in Palo Alto is currently $1.7M and the median price per square foot is about $860/sf.

In January 2005, the same numbers were $1.75M and $880/sf.

Can this be true? Or does it simply reflect mor elower priced homes on the market currently?

Let’s look at median price over the past four years in the four price quartiles – this will give us some insight into whether all prices ranges in Palo Alto are moving in sync or whether one price range is stronger than another.

Based on this data, it appears that the highest price range in Palo Alto has been the most volatile – starting at $4M in January 2005 and increasing to $5M in January 08 and then dropping to $3.5M in January 09.

The second highest price range is currently at the same level as it was four years ago – $2M.

The two lowest price ranges appear to have increased slightly and in a consistent basis over the past four year ending maybe ending up about 20% from Janaury 2005 to January 2009.

Let’s look at median price per square foot in the four price ranges over the same time period.

Interestingly the shape of the 4 curves is similar throughout the price ranges but what is even more interesting is  that the median price per square foot for the lowest three price ranges is fairly similar over the past four years – therefore the big difference in value is almost totally dependent on square footage since the median price per square foot is similar.

The most expensive homes sell for the highest price per square foot – I imagine this is a result of locational differences – ie – the most expensive homes are located in Palo Alto’s most desirable “northern” neighborhoods – Old Palo Alto, Crescent Park, Professorville, and downtown and that the more expensive homes are average are probably new or newer homes and therefore understandably sell for more per square foot.

What is your “take” on the data?

Palo Alto CA market data – effect of stock market crash 10/08?

2008 was generally a slow year for real estate on the San Francisco Peninsula.

In the desirable residential communities, prices were flat to slightly declining and number of sales was typically down about 25%.

But did things change for the worse after the October collapse of the stock market? The data below seems to indicate yes.

                           Oct – Dec 2008      Previous Quarter        Year over Year

Median Price    $1,350,000          $1,700,000 (-20.6%)   $1,576,700 (-13.8%)

Average Price    $1,473,550          $1,793,510 (-17.8%)      $1,854,710 (-20.6%)

# of sales              65                         99 (-34.3%)                     86 (-27.0%)

Pending Sales       6                         13 (-53.8%)                       14 (-57.1%)

Active                     63                       73 (-13.7%)                       25 (+152.0%)

Sales v List Price   99.9%                102.0% (-2.1%)                106.0% (-5.7%)

Days on Market     32                       28 (+13.0%)                       23 (+36.3%)

Whether compared to the prior quarter in 2008 or the same quarter in 2007, the data for the 4th quarter 2008 is weaker.

Median and average price is down from the prior quarter and from the same quarter the year prior.

The number of sales is down from the prior quarter and from the same quarter the year prior.

It appears and it makes sense that the stock market debacle in October 2008 has impacted our local real estate market. I will look at other cities on the Peninsula and see if the same trend applies.