Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'Real Estate Data' Category

Menlo Park home sales at their lowest levels in 11 years

November Menlo Park home sales are at their lowest levels in 11 years.

In November 2008, 16 Menlo Park home sales closed escrow.

Compared to November Menlo Park Home Sales as follows:

2007 – 22 closed Menlo Park home sales

2006 – 38 closed Menlo Park home sales

2005 – 36 closed Menlo Park home sales

2004 – 50 closed Menlo Park home sales

2003 – 35 closed Menlo Park home sales

2002 – 37 closed Menlo Park home sales

2001 – 37 closed Menlo Park home sales

2000 – 31 closed Menlo Park home sales

1999 – 40 closed Menlo Park home sales

1998 – 26 closed Menlo Park home sales

16 closed sales in November 2008 for Menlo Park is less than 50% of the 11 year average of approximately 34 Menlo Park home sales in the month of November.

I will compare to Palo Alto in posts to follow.

San Carlos November Home Sales at lowest levels in 11 years

November San Carlos home sales are at their lowest levels in 11 years.

In November 2008, 14 San Carlos home sales closed escrow.

Compared to November San Carlos Home Sales as follows:

2007 – 24 closed San Carlos home sales

2006 – 22 closed San Carlos home sales

2005 – 28 closed San Carlos home sales

2004 – 32 closed San Carlos home sales

2003 – 28 closed San Carlos home sales

2002 – 33 closed San Carlos home sales

2001 – 26 closed San Carlos home sales

2000 – 26 closed San Carlos home sales

1999 – 40 closed San Carlos home sales

1998 – 16 closed San Carlos home sales

14 closed sales in November 2008 for San Carlos is about 50% of the 11 year average of approximately 27 San Carlos home sales in the month of November.

I will compare to Palo Alto and Menlo Park in posts to follow.

Palo Alto Real Estate Days on Market by Price Range

Is any price range of the Palo Alto real estate market selling more quickly or more slowly than other price ranges?

Breaking the City of Palo Alto market down into 4 quartiles or prices ranges as follows:

First quartile – top 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $3,399,000

Second quartile – next 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $2,189,000

Third quartile – the next 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $1,562,450

Forth quartile – the lowest 25% priced homes in Palo Alto – median price – $1,135,000

Take a look at the chart below:

In Menlo Park during 2008, the higher price range sold more quickly than the lower price range. In Palo Alto, the lower price range sold more quickly than the upper price range. My sense is buyers are taking advantage of the slower market to get into the Palo Alto market primarily for the excellent schools and storng sense of community.

Menlo Park Real Estate Days on Market by Price Range

Is any price range of the Menlo Park real estate market selling more quickly or more slowly than other price ranges?

Breaking the City of Menlo Park market down into 4 quartiles or prices ranges as follows:

First quartile – top 25% priced homes in Menlo Park – median price – $2,595,000

Second quartile – next 25% priced homes in Menlo Park – median price – $1,625,000

Third quartile – the next 25% priced homes in Menlo Park – median price – $988,000

Forth quartile – the lowest 25% priced homes in Menlo Park – median price – $399,900

Take a look at the chart below:

One striking feature of the above chart is that the least expensive homes in Menlo Park have the LONGEST days on market. The median price of the lowest priced quartile (i.e. the 4th quartile) is $399,900. Just about all of these homes are in the Belle Haven scetion of Menlo Park east of Highway 101. This neighborhood market has been hurt by numerous foreclosures due to the extensive use of sub-prime financing to purchase homes in Belle Haven in the past few years.

It can also be noted that the most expensive homes in Menlo Park (median price $2,595,000) has in general had the lowest days on market thoughout for the year.

The middle 2 quartiles show the same trend. Typically the higher the price the lower the days on market.

IN 2008 in Menlo Park, the more expensive the home that more likely for a lower days on market.

San Carlos Real Estate Days on Market by Price Range

Is any price range of the San Carlos real estate market selling more quickly or more slowly than other price ranges?

Breaking the City of San Carlos market down into 4 quartiles or prices ranges as follows:

First quartile – top 25% priced homes in San Carlos – median price – $1,624,000

Second quartile – next 25% priced homes in San Carlos – median price – $1,272,000

Third quartile – the next 25% priced homes in San Carlos – median price – $1,048,975

Forth quartile – the lowest 25% priced homes in San Carlos – median price – $709,000

Take a look at the chart below:

We can see at the start of 2008, the highest priced homes taking about 40 more days on the market to sell then the rest of the San Carlos market.

As the year went on, the days on market for the most expensive homes dropped down into a similar range as the rest of San Carlos.

For the balance of the year, all four quartiles moved roughly together – with a low of 50 days on market around July 1 and since that time a slowly increasing days on market time – to currently about 60 days for the 3 lowest quartiles and about 80 for the most expensive homes in San Carlos.

There are some excellent buys in San Carlos right now with a newly remodeled and updated home in White Oaks just reduced to $729,000. This home will not last long at this price. White Oaks is wonderful and this home is ready to move into.

Menlo Park Real Estate 2007 v 2008

How does the current 2008 real estate market in Menlo Park compare to the market in 2007?

Below you will find median prices for both single family homes and condominiums/townhouses in Menlo Park for the both 2 years.

The median price for both single family homes in Menlo Park decreased during the 2nd half of 2007 and has fluctuated dramatically during 2008 finishing higher at present than at the start of the year.

The median price for condominium/townhouse in Menlo Park increased during the 2nd hlaf of the 2007 and flucuated dramatically during 2008 and is finishing at about the same level as the year started.

San Carlos Real Estate 2007 v 2008

How does the current 2008 real estate market in San Carlos compare to the market in 2007?

Below you will find median prices for both single family homes and condominiums/townhouses in San Carlos for the both 2 years.

In both cases, the median price in 2008 is below the corresponding median price in 2007.

It is interesting to note that for both single family homes and condominium/townhouses in San Carlos, the median price has increased since May 2008.

San Carlos Menlo Park Palo Alto Market Action Index 2008

Altos Research has developed a method (the Market Action Index) to quickly evaluate how strong or weak a current market is. The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller’s Market” (a.k.a. “Hot Market”) because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a “Buyer’s Market” (a.k.a. “Cold Market”) where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall. Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market MARKET ACTION INDEX conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

The MAI forSan Carlos and Menlo Park has been between 18 and 25 all year – indicating a buyers’ market for 2008.

The MAI for Palo Alto started above 30 – indicating a sellers’ market – but then dropped below 30 on its way to 20 indicating a buyers’ market even in Palo Alto.

Please let me know if you would like weekly or monthly market reports emailed to you.

San Carlos Menlo Park Palo Alto Median Price per Square Foot

It is informative to look at the median price per square foot as well as the more commonly reported median and average price statistics.

Below you will find chart indicating median price per square foot for single family homes in San Carlos Menlo Park and Palo Alto:

In general, the median price per square foot declined in 2008 for all three cities – San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto.

San Carlos median price per sqaure foot dropped from about $640/sf to $580/sf.

Menlo Park median price per sqaure foot dropped ever so slighyly from $680/sf to $675/sf.

(Please note Menlo Park data includes Belle Haven neighborhood east of Highway 101 where property values are much lower than in the Menlo park areas west of Highway 101)

Palo Alto median price per square foot dropped from about $925/sf to $860/sf.

San Carlos Menlo Park Palo Alto Average Days on Market 2008

What have been the average days on market for single family detached homes in San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto during 2008?

Have the average days on market in each of the three cities – San Carlos or Menlo Park or Palo Alto – behaved similarily during the year or have these three cities experienced differences?

Below you will see chart showing average days on market during 2008:

Averages days on market for single family homes in Menlo Park has remained relatively constant during 2008 at around 70 days.

In San Carlos and Palo Alto during 2008, we see a more seasonal pattern.

Average days on market peaked around March 1 (about 90 for San Carlos and 60 for Palo Alto), decreased to a low around July 1 (about 55 in San Carlos and about 40 days in Palo Alto), and since that time have increased through the balance of the year.