Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'Real Estate Data' Category

San Carlos Menlo Park Palo Alto Inventory Levels 2008

What have been the inventory levels for single family detached homes in San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto during 2008?

Have the inventory levels in each of the three cities – San Carlos or Menlo Park or Palo Alto – behaved similarily during the year or have these three cities experienced differences?

Below you will see chart showing inventory levels during 2008:

The average chart indicates that inventory levels in all three cities – San Carlos Menlo Park and Palo Alto behaved in a similar fashion throughout the year.

Inventory levels in all three cities increased through the spring and summer – remained relatively flat through the fall and have now started to increase again towards the end of the year.

Menlo Park Real Estate Market October 2008

What is happening in the Menlo Park real estate market during the month of October 2008?

Below you will find a list of all single family homes listed in Menlo Park between October 1, 2008 and October 31, 2008

The average list price of the 38 new listings of Menlo Park homes in the month of October 1, 2008 is $1,701,345.

Only 2 homes listed since October 1, 2008 in Menlo Park have sold. Both of these sales were for homes priced under $900,000.

It appears buyers for more expensive homes are being more cautious than entry level buyers. This is similar to what is seen in San Carlos.

This is not to say the market in Menlo Park is dead. 18 homes in Menlo Park went into contract during the month of October. The data above is for homes listed AFTER October 1, 2008.

San Carlos Real Estate Market October 2008

What is happening in the San Carlos real estate market during the month of October 2008?

Below you will find a list of all single family homes listed in San Carlos between October 1, 2008 and October 31, 2008.

The average list price of the 38 new listings of San Carlos homes in the month of October 1, 2008 is $1,094,154.
All of the 8 homes from this group of San Carlos homes that have sold since being listed October 1, 2008 were priced below the average list price for the month.
2 sales of homes listed in the $700,000 range.
3 sales of homes listed in the $800,000 range.
1 sale of a house in the $900,000 range and 1 sale of a house listed over $1,000,000.

My analysis of this would be that buyers are taking advantage of the current buyers’ market to get into the City of San Carlos at a verty good price. So in San Carlos, it appears the entry level is moving well while the more expensive homes are taking longer to sell.

The data above is for San Carlos homes listed AFTE October 1, 2008.

Overall, 17 homes in San Carlos went into contract during the month of October 2008.

Menlo Park real estate update

How is the market in Menlo Park? How does it compare to the market in San Carlos?

Here is the data – number of new listings per month compared to number of accepted offers/pending sales per month in Menlo Park, CA for both single family homes and condominiums/townhouses.

Single family homes:

There have been typically 45 to 60 single family homes listed in Menlo Park each month and monthly sales have typically been 25 to 45 per month. August had fewer accepted offers than every other month except for January.

Condominiums and townhouses:

 

The condominium townhouse market has been pretty stable throughout the year in MP.

10 to 15 new listings come on the market each month and there are 8 to 10 sales each month.

We again see an increase in September sales over August sales.

San Carlos Real Estate Market Update

People always want to know: “How’s the market?” or “Is the single family home market stronger than the condominium townhouse market?”

Let’s take a look at what has happened over the past 12 months in San Carlos, CA.

Below you will find charts showing the number of new listings each month versus the number of pending sales or accepted offers each month.

Here is the chart for single family detached homes in San Carlos:

For single family homes in San Carlos, we see a typical seasonal pattern of decreasing number of new listings thru the holidays at the end of 2007 and then a steady flux of new listings starting in February 2008 with a decrease as we entered the summer months and then an increase in new listings after Labor Day.  Sales also increased in February 2008 and held steady throughout the year until decreasing in August and September pattern.

Interestingly the trend line for new listings is going up while the trend line for accepted offers or pending sales is going down – perhaps foreshadowing a slow down in the market.

Here is the chart of condominiums and townhouses in San Carlos:

Condominium sales in San Carlos ranged between 5 to 15 a month over the past 12 months. Interestingly, the biggest month for accepted offers was August 2008. August tpyically is a slow month but a large number of San Carlos condominiums were sold. Listings increased in September 2008 but sales dropped to a low number of 3 – again perhaps a foreshadow of a slowing market.

The October market data should be VERY INTERESTING as we get a first glimpse of the financial crisis and bailout’s impact on the real estate market.

A Tale of Three Cities and Four Price Ranges

I believe it is common knowledge that real estate is very local. The market in Menlo Park, Palo Alto, and San Carlos can be very different from the market in the East Bay or in the Central Valley. Even on the San Francisco Peninsula, markets vary from city to city. At the current time, Palo Alto is stronger than Menlo Park, Menlo Park is stronger than San Carlos and San Carlos is stronger than South San Francisco or Daly City.

In addition, it is common knowledge that within cities, certain neighborhoods are stronger than others.

We are also seeing different markets within cities depending on the price range of the properties being offered for sale.

Below you will see charts for San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto broken down into quartiles – i.e. each city is divided into four quartile price ranges – one could label them “low price quartile”, “middle low quartile”, “middle high quartile” and “high quartile”. These prices are for LIST prices.

Here is the chart for San Carlos:

Let’s look at San Carlos…….

In the lowest price quartile in San Carlos, average prices have declined from $825,000 July 2007 to $745,000 July 2008.

In the middle low price quartile in San Carlos, average prices have were $1,075,000 July 2007 dropped to $925,000 in April 2008 and have recently risen to $1,000,000.

In the middle high price quartile in San Carlos, average prices have declined from $1,400,00 July 2007 to $1,300,000 July 2008.

In the high price quartile in San Carlos, average prices have declined from $2,100,000 July 2007 to $1,700,000 July 2008.

In San Carlos:

The lowest quartile price homes are found east of El Camino and prices in those neighborhoods have dropped over the past year. 

The very highest price range in San Carlos has dropped significantly over the past year.

The entry level price quartile (low middle) for homes located west of El Camino has remained fairly steady.

Here is the chart for Menlo Park:

In the lowest price quartile in Menlo Park, average prices have declined from $700,000 July 2007 to $500,000 July 2008.

In the low middle price quartile in Menlo Park, the average price of $900,000 has remained fairly constant over the past year.

In the high middle price quartile in Menlo Park, the average price was $1,325,000 July 2007 and has risen slightly to $1,400,000 July 2008.

In the high price quartile in Menlo Park, average price was $2,500,000 July 2007 and has risen $2,750,000 July 2008.

The lowest priced areas in Menlo Park are in Belle Haven east of Highway 101, property values in that area have dropped significantly.

The higer priced areas of Menlo Park west of El Camino (west Menlo) have increased over the past year even during a very tough market overall. The desirability of west Menlo is matched by the continued financial strenght of the people who want to own there.

The chart does indicate a slight cooling in all prices ranges since spring 2008.

Let’s look at Palo Alto……

In all four price quartiles in Palo Alto, average prices are about the same in July 2007 and July 2008.

The Palo Alto market has remained very strong over the past year.

Los Altos Market Data

Dave Blockhous of Coldwell Banker Los Altos recently did an analysis of the current Los Altos market. In this post, Dave compares market activity (number of sales and listings & average and median prices) over the first six months of the past couple of years. His analysis comes to much the same conclusions as my analysis of the San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto markets did: The number of sales are down from years past but the average and median prices have remained stable or increased slightly.

Year to Date Closed Sales San Francisco Peninsula

2007 data is in blue and 2008 data is in red.

These numbers reflect closed sales through June 30 of each year.

As reflected in the number of sales my office has completed this year, the number of closed sales in all communities is down from 2007.

Mountan View down 3%

Los Altos down 21%

Palo Alto down 27%

Menlo Park down 28%

East Menlo Park down 72%

Redwood City down 16%

San Carlos down 20%

Listing Inventory Levels on the San Francisco Peninsula

2007 data is in blue and 2008 data is in red.

As you can see inventory has increased in all communities from 2007 to 2008.

Mountain View up 91%

Los Altos up 45%

Palo Alto up 42%

Menlo Park up 47%

East Menlo Park up 58%

Redwood City up 61%

San Carlos up 54%

Average Sales Price Palo Alto Los Altos Mountain View

Here is the average sales price data for Mountain View, Los Altos, and Palo Alto.

Los Altos average sales price is up about 7% from last year and average sales price for Mountain View and Palo Alto remains basically unchanged.