Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'Real Estate Data' Category

Average Sales Price Menlo Park Redwood City and San Carlos

Please review average sales prices in the chart above.

The blue column is 2007 and the red column is 2008.

I have broken out Menlo Park into the areas west of Highway 101 and the areas east of Highway 101 to indicate how different the current market can be based on price range and location.

In west Menlo Park, the 2008 average sales price of $1,841,515 is an increase of 15% from last year.

In east Menlo Park, the 2008 average sales price of $414,612 is a decrease of 34% from last year.

Redwood City has experienced a slight decrease and San Carlos a slight increase.

How is the current market in Menlo Park ?

My Coldwell Banker El Camino office had our Half Year State of the Office and Marketplace meeting earlier today. My office is the number 1 Coldwell Banker office in the San Francisco/Peninsula region in terms of listings and closed sales per agent year to agent.

Here is what our office has experienced in the first half of the year to date.

Average sales price is up 5.5% but the number of sales is down 38%.

So in our market area, prices have held up fairly well and in some cases increased while sales volume is down significantly.

 I will supply actual market data for each community in my market area in subsequent posts.

Fed leaves rate unchanged – what will happen with mortgage rates?

CNN reports that the Federal Reserve Board leaves its key short-term interest rate unchanged. By a vote of 9-1, the Fed decided to leave the rate at 2%. The sole dissenting vote was from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President, Richard Fischer, who voted for an increase.

 

It is unclear what this decision means for real estate mortgage rates but my sense is that it may signal mortgage rates are as low as they are going to be in the near future. I believe at this point in time there is a far greater chance mortgage rates will go up rather than down.

San Carlos Market Update

The days od inventory for single family homes has increased since 2004 (20 days of inventory) to 56 days of inventory currently but is lower than it was in 2007 (60 days of inventory).

The number of single family home sales has decreased from about 400 per year in years 2003 and 2004 to about 300 yer year in 2007 and 2008.

The sales to list price ratio for single family homes in San Carlos reached a peak of 106% in 2005 but still is at a heathly 102% for the current year.

You may research similar data in other Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties on my site. This information is also broken down by mls neighborhood communities.

Annual Home Sales

Here is the a chart showing national annual home sales.

Sales have decreased each year since 2005.

Calculated Risk which has lots of cool data on its site prepared the above chart.

Single Family Home Inventories are Increasing

The charts speak for themselves – inventory is increasing. Will sales increase to absorb the increasing inventory?

Palo Alto Home Sales as a % of New Listings

Palo Alto home sales as measured as a percentage of new listings is slower in 2008 than in 2007.

In 2007, homes sales were 36.% of new listings in January 2007, 73.81% in February 2007 and 94.55% in March 2007.

The corresponding figures in 2008 are 36.11%, 36.17%, and 55.36%.

Inventory is increasing.

There were 5 months in 2007 where monthly sales exceeded the number of new listings.

We see a similar trend in Palo Alto as we have in Menlo Park and San Carlos.

2008 sale numbers are below 2007 sale numbers.

The number of sales has increased through the first three months of the year.

What willthe rest of the year bring in Palo Alto?

Menlo Park Home Sales as a % of New Listings

There were very few listings in Menlo Park came on in the last two months of 2007 (52) and 46 homes sold in those two months.

65 new listings came on the market in March 2008 with 24 sales in March 2008.

57 new listings came on the market in March 2007 with 40 sales in March 2007.

What will the rest of the year bring? Inventory seems to be increasing in Menlo Park. Will sales keep pace?

Menlo Park monthly home sales

The number of homes sold in Menlo Park in March 2008 shows the typical spring increase in the number of homes sold. However it should be noted that the number of sales in the first 3 months of the year is below the 2007 amounts. 85 homes sold first quarter 07 versus 55 homes sold first quarter 08.

22 homes sold January 2007 with 11 sold in January 2008.

23 homes sold in February 2007 with 20 sold in February 2008.

40 homes sold in March 2007 with 24 sold in March 2008.

The obvious conclusion is that the number of sales in 2008 will be smaller than the number of sales in 2007.

What will the rest of the year bring? That’s why Chris Berman on ESPN says “that’s why they play the games!” – you never know what will happen – stay tuned for further updates.