Arn Cenedella

Archive for the 'San Carlos Real Estate' Category

What has happened to our local real estate market over the past 12 months?

Let’s take a look at inventory levels for single family homes in Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and San Carlos over the past 12 months.

As we can see, the number of homes for sale in Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and San Carlos dropped during 2009 reaching a low right around the holiday season where many homeowners just take their homes off the market.

Since the first of the year inventory levels have increased:

Currently, there are about 90 homes for sale in Palo Alto and Menlo Park and about 50 homes for sale in San Carlos.

What is striking is that the number of homes for sale March 1, 2009 compared to March 1, 2010 is that in all three cities, current inventory is much less than 12 months ago.

Inventory in Palo Alto has dropped from 135 to 90.

Inventory in Menlo Park has dropped from 130 to 90.

Inventory in San Carlos has dropped from 85 to 50.

This bodes well for our real estate market. When inventory drops, buyers are competing for fewer properties.

We are starting to see multiple offers in Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and San Carlos especially in the “entry level price range” – $1.2M and below for Palo Alto and Menlo Park and $1M and below in San Carlos.

Let’s take a look at the Market Action Index for Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto.

A value above 30 indicates a sellers’ market. A value below 30 indicates a buyers’ market.

As you can see the market action index has increased steadily over the past 12 months. What was a very “cold” market – ie poor for sellers – 12 months ago has “warmed” significantly over the past 12 months. It still is a buyers’ market but much less so than 12 months ago. If the Market Action Index continues to improve at the same rate, we will see a balanced market in about another 18 to 24 months. Of course, no one can predict the future and many things can either accelerate or reverse the trend of the past 12 months.

The market action index in Palo Alto has increased from 18.5 to 21.5.

The market action index in Menlo Park has increased from 17.5 to 21.0.

The market action index in San Carlos has increased from 16.5 to 20.5.

Let’s look at price per square foot in Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and San Carlos.

The median price per square foot has decreased minimally in all three cities.

So what’s my overall take?

Prices certainly has not yet started to jump up but the market is getting stronger – inventory has dropped and the market action index has increased. We are setting the stage for a solid market moving forward.

As a buyer, I would not be in any great hurry to buy but we are near the bottom. So keep looking and when you find a house you like that you can purchase at a good value, go for it.

After 32 years in the local real estate market, I can tell you when the market turns upward, it turns upward QUICKLY. Interest rates certainly are headed up. So don’t make a “panic” purchase as many did in 2004 and 2006 but be realistic.

Excellent new listing in White Oaks, San Carlos

I had the pleasure of touring a fantastic new listing in White Oaks about 2 blocks away from my home since 1986.

335 Pearl Avenue is listed by an old family friend, Jean Rigg of Menlo Realty.

This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is listed at $997,000 and contains 1690 sf of living space.

Hardwood floors, open beamed vauled ceilings, very ample room sizes – you should see the bathrooms!

Offers will be presented Friday Feb. 26 at Noon.

I would expect this property will recieve multiple offers like many other San Carlos homes priced under $1,000,000 have recently.

Here are a few pics:

The property is on a corner lot so it does not have a large rear yard.

Other than that, it is n excellent house with good bones and in good condition.

Let me know if you would like to take a look at this home.

To search for other San Carlos homes, click here.

San Carlos condominium market

I will be holding open my new listing at 3314 Brittan Ave. #2 San Carlos $499,000 this Sunday from 130PM to 430PM.

In general, the condominium market has been slower than the single family home market. As property values have decreased, single family homes are now more affordable for many buyers. Homes in San Carlos west of El Camino can now be purchased for under $800,000 a number unheard of two years ago. That being said, condominiums are still a very good option to get into wonderful communities that are safe and have good schools like San Carlos.

Let’s take a look at the condominium market in San Carlos:

Average and median prices for condominiums in San Carlos have remained relatively stable.

At the end of 2008 and early in 2009, 2 or 3 condominiums a month were selling in San Carlos.

Since June 2009, about 7 condominiums a month have sold in San Carlos.

For condominiums in San Carlos, days of inventory is currently about 90 down from almost 300 early in 2009.

This reflects lower inventory and a higher rate of sales.

The number of condominiums in San Carlos sold in 2009 is similar to the number sold in 2008.

The number of condominiums sold in San Carlos in 2008 and 2009 is down about 25% from the previous years.

San Carlos condominiums are currently selling at about 98% of their list price.

Search for San Carlos condominiums and townhouses, click here.

New White Oaks listing in San Carlos

New White Oaks listing in San Carlos, originally uploaded by ArnCenedella.

I just toured a great buyer for entry level buyer in San Carlos. 2043 St Francis Way 3 bedroom 2 bath immaculate with updated kitchen. Only $899000. Will not last! Call me if you would like to see.

San Carlos Real Estate Market Update

Here is a snap shot of the San Carlos real estate market:

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2009	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$865,000	$876,500 (-1.3%)	$860,000 (+0.6%)
Average Price	$910,287	$907,454 (+0.3%)	$990,433 (-8.1%)
No. of Sales	15	24 (-37.5%)	15 (0.0%)
Pending Properties	25	24 (+4.2%)	19 (+31.6%)
Active	59	57 (+3.5%)	73 (-19.2%)
Sale vs. List Price	101.2%	98.3% (+2.9%)	97.7% (+3.6%)
Days on Market	23	58 (-60.5%)	30 (-23.7%)

The above table shows reflects CLOSED SALES in September 2009.

The average and median prices in San Carlos are basically unchanged from August 2009 to September 2009.

The number of sales dropped from 24 to 15.

At first glance, this is a significant drop in the number of sales. But we need to remember that most September closed sales are a result of homes going into contract in August 2009. August typically is a very slow month with many family vacations and time devoted to getting the kids back to school and off to college.

One should note that the sales price to list price ratio went above (meaning on average most San Carlos home sold OVER the asking price). This ratio increased to 101.2% from 98.3%.

Also average days on market dropped from 58 to 23. That is quite a large decrease.

Shorter days on market and a sales to list price ratio over 100% indicate a strengthening market in San Carlos.

That is not to say prices are going up!.

For additional San Carlos Real Estate Market data, click here.

San Carlos real estate market from 2005 to present

Here is chart showing median price for a single family home in San Carlos since 2005.

It has been a roller coaster – about $1 Million in 2006 to a peak of $1.25 Million in July 2007 and currently back down to $1 Million.

Here is chart showing San Carlos single family home inventory since 2005.

Typically there have been about 40 homes for sale in 2006 and 2007. Inventory has increased to about 75 since that time.

Here is chart showing average days on market in San Carlos:

Average days on market for single family homes in San Carlos was about 30 days in 2006 and is now currently running about 100 days.

The real estate market on San Francisco Peninsula has heated up

In my previous few posts, I documented that the number of homes sold in San Carlos Menlo Park and Palo Alto during the second quarter of 2009 was TWICE the number of homes sold in the first quarter of this year.

The numbers tell the story – but stories also illiminate the numbers.

I recently wrote an offer for a buyer client of mine on a property listed listed at $619,000.

My clients offered $670,000 “as is” - had a solid pre-approval and a 35% cash down payment.

This offer had only an appraisal contingency and would close in 30 days.

The buyers had read and approved all reports, inspections, and disclosures.

So basically the offer was as clean an offer as any seller could want.

Offers were due earlier this week in the early afternoon of the offer day.

In the morning, I checked with seller agent and was told there were 8 offers.

By the end of the day, there were 25 offers on this property!

I am not sure what property sold for but it was over $700,00 and I suspect closer to $750,000 by the time the dust settled.

I have heard of other properties priced in the $400,00 to $500,00 range in Redwood City selling for $100,000 over list.

So if you are waiting for the bottom, I think we may have already hit bottom and have started back up.

This is certainly true under $1,000,000 price range.

White Oaks San Carlos new tour listings – sneak preview!

The number of new homes listed for sale typically increases after Labor Day.

There will be four new listings in White Oaks – a neighborhood I have lived in and totally enjoyed since 1986 – all priced below $1,000,000.

These new listings offer buyers an opportunity to get into a wonderful San Carlos neighborhood at a fairly affordable level.

Here they are:

Just click on address to obtain more detailed information.

143 Ruby Avenue

2 bedrooms 1.5 baths

$899,000

2335 St. Francis Way

3 bedrooms 3.5 baths

$988,000

191 Fairmont Ave.

3 bedrooms 2 baths

$775,000

131 Ruby Avenue

3 bedrooms 1 baths

$879,000

Search for San Carlos single family home listings

Search for San Carlos condominium and townhouse listings

San Carlos real estate data

Here is San Carlos real estate market data for the past 3 years expressed on a quarterly basis.

Note the large increase in sales in San Carlos from the first quarter 09 to the second quarter 09.

In addition, please note the increase in the sale price to list price ratio.

San Carlos Menlo Park and Palo Alto markets are on the upswing!

The real estate markets in San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto are showing signs of strength.

It is my humble opinion that the market has stabilized and is on the upswing.

Don’t take my word for it, let’s look at the data comparing the first quarter 2009 with the second quarter in 2009 for San Carlos, Menlo Park, and San Carlos. Next month, I will update these figures and show third quarter activity which I expect will be even stronger than the second quarter.

San Carlos

Trends At a Glance Apr-Jun 2009 Previous Quarter Year-over Year Median Price $895,000 $950,000 (-5.8%) $950,000 (-5.8%) Average Price $924,144 $985,752 (-6.2%) $1,076,940 (-14.2%) No. of Sales 62 33 (+87.9%) 75 (-17.3%) Pending Properties 19 20 (-5.0%) 28 (-32.1%) Active 59 72 (-18.1%) 74 (-20.3%) Sale vs. List Price 98.0% 96.7% (+1.4%) 99.5% (-1.5%) Days on Market 41 41 (+1.0%) 35 (+16.3%)

The number of closed sales increased to 62 homes in the second quarter from 33 in the first quarter – 87.9% increase.

Menlo Park

Trends At a Glance	Apr-Jun 2009	Previous Quarter	Year-over Year
Median Price	$1,137,500	$915,000 (+24.3%)	$1,637,500 (-30.5%)
Average Price	$1,373,500	$931,196 (+47.5%)	$1,776,390 (-22.7%)
No. of Sales	102	50 (+104.0%)	108 (-5.6%)
Pending Properties	33	26 (+26.9%)	27 (+22.2%)
Active	90	132 (-31.8%)	112 (-19.6%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.1%	97.5% (+0.5%)	101.2% (-3.1%)
Days on Market	53	53 (+0.4%)	28 (+90.3%)

The number of closed sales increased to 102 in the second quarter from 50 in the first quarter – a 104% increase.

Palo Alto

Trends At a Glance	Apr-Jun 2009	Previous Quarter	Year-over Year
Median Price	$1,372,500	$1,287,500 (+6.6%)	$1,550,000 (-11.5%)
Average Price	$1,568,630	$1,451,820 (+8.0%)	$1,780,320 (-11.9%)
No. of Sales	114	48 (+137.5%)	122 (-6.6%)
Pending Properties	24	28 (-14.3%)	43 (-44.2%)
Active	117	140 (-16.4%)	75 (+56.0%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.0%	97.4% (+0.6%)	102.3% (-4.1%)
Days on Market	41	43 (-4.6%)	25 (+61.7%)

The number of closed sales increased to 114 in the second quarter from 48 in the first quarter – a 137.5% increase.

In all three cities, inventory has dropped from the first quarter to the second quarter.

In San Carlos, inventory dropped from 72 homes to 59 homes.

In Menlo Park, inventory dropped from 132 homes to 90 homes.

In Palo Alto, inventory dropped from 140 homes to 114 homes.

Days on market in San Carlos, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto has remained stable in all three cities – between 41 to 53 days on market.

Average and median prices increased in Menlo Park and Palo Alto while dropping slightly in San Carlos.

Please understand I am not saying prices will start to jump up 10% to 15% per year. But in my 31 years in the San Francisco Peninsula market, I have been through many cycles and typically the start of a rally is characterized by increasing sales volume, decreasing inventory while prices remain flat. If the trend of increased sales and lower inventory continues, then one can predict prices can start to increase.

It will be interesting to see if the third quarter sales data shows a continuation of the trend. I believe it will.