What will the new year bring for Menlo Park real estate?
Below you will see a graph showing inventory levels for single family homes in Menlo Park over the past 2.5 years.
The inventory levels for available single family homes usually reaches a low point right around January 1 of each year. On January 1, 2006, there were 45 single family homes for sale in Menlo Park. On Janaury 1, 2007, there were only 27 single family homes for sale in Menlo Park. Currently as of January 1, 2008; there are 67 single family homes for sale in Menlo Park.
So current inventory is higher than it has been the past 2 years. I guess that’s no suprise given the current market.
Inventory levels typically increase from the low levels in January and reach a peak in Menlo Park typically in May or June of each year. Inventory levels often tend to drop a little towards the end of summer (family vacations? getting kids back to school? the dog days of summer?) and then pick up again after Labor Day until dropping again as we approach the November and December holiday period.
The shape of these graphs on an annual basis are similar but not exact. 2005 and 2007 exhibited a spike in inventory after Labor Day where 2006 did not.
I thought it would be informative to compare listings and sales for the last 4 months of each year - i.e. September, October, November, and December.
In these 4 months:
2006 170 new listings 130 closed sales 40 more listings than sales
2007 122 new listings 107 closed sales 15 more listings than sales
2008 157 new listings 74 closed sales 83 more listings than sales
These number clearly show why inventory has not dropped as much at the end of 2007 and it did in the preceeding years - fewer closed sales compared to new listings - hence higher inventory.
What will 2008 bring?
My sense is overall inventory will increase significantly from the current level of 67 homes as we leave the holiday period. Many of the agents in my office say they are working on new listings that will come to market the first quarter 2008.
But again, one must remember real estate is very local.
Even within cities, each neighborhood is different.
My sense is well-priced homes in west menlo will be in high demand and will sell quickly as they come on the market. There will be more buyers looking in west menlo than there will be houses for them. The less expensive areas of Menlo Park near HWY 101 and east of HWY 101 will see softer markets than experienced west of El Camino.
Current MLS data indicates 58 homes for sale in Menlo Park as of 1-3-2008.
27 of these are located in Belle Haven - east of HWY 101.
10 of these are located in the unicorporated area of Fair Oaks off Marsh Road.
5 of these are in the Willows or the Flood Park triangle off Bay Road.
6 are in west Menlo and 6 are off the Alameda or in Sharon Heights.
So maybe ONLY 12 homes for sale in west menlo.
Again, it is all abut location, location, location.
2 responses so far ↓
1 Does Los Altos Real Estate Have A Seasonal Pattern? // Jan 4, 2008 at 12:54 am
[…] just read an interesting article by Arn Cenedella, another Coldwell Banker agent located in our Menlo Park office, […]
2 A look at the inventory of homes for sale in Palo Alto, CA | 3 Oceans Real Estate, A Boutique Real Estate Brokerage Serving the San Francisco Bay Area // Jan 5, 2008 at 5:58 pm
[…] Los Gatos is that its beginning of the year inventory is somewhat higher than it normally is. Arn Cenedella* of Coldwell Banker notes a similar pattern in Menlo Park real estate, while Dave Blockhus*, also of Coldwell Banker, notes that Los Altos’ real estate inventory […]
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