SF Peninsula Real Estate Guru

NAR in its most recent statistical update estimates that 5.336 Million homes will be sold this year.

Everyday we read in the newspapers how terrible the real estate market is.

I have consistently maintained that while the market has slowed it is not a disaster but rather just a return to a more normal market.

Let’s look at US homes sales over the past 10 years.

Here is the data:

Over the past 10 years, on average 5.205 Million homes have been sold per year.

So assuming NAR’s projections are correct; the number of homes sold in 2007 shall be slightly above the 10 year average number of sales.

This certainly is not a collapse but more a return to a normal market.

It would not suprise me if the NAR projection for 2007 sales is reduced from the current 5.336 Million estimate. Even if this should comes to pass, the number of sales will be basically average for the past 10 years.

Looking more locally - i.e. to the San Francisco Peninsula - August is typically a very slow month for homes sales - Sales typically pick up once Labor Day is over. It willbe interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.

In a follow-up post, I will provide California sales data for your consideration.